What would happen to my portfolio if central banks start cutting rates?
A market question puts a portfolio next to what the markets did — an index, a sector, a period. The comparison only means anything when both sides are measured over the same dates and in the same currency.
Worked through on a sample portfolio. The figures below are that portfolio’s, not yours.
I ran a simple scenario for a central-bank-rate-cut environment applied to today’s holdings (no trading, exchange rates unchanged, dividends ignored). Results are hypothetical.
Assumptions:
- Equities (all stocks and equity ETFs): +8% applied to their current values
- Crypto: +5% applied to crypto holdings
- Precious metal (Gold): -2% applied to its current value
- Cash unchanged; no buys or sells; shocks applied to today's holdings
Result summary (hypothetical scenario)
| Asset | Value (EUR) | Value change (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Apple Inc. | 16.749,00 € | +1.339,92 € |
| iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF | 15.054,60 € | +1.204,37 € |
| Microsoft Corp. | 10.571,25 € | +848,98 € |
| MasterCard Inc. | 9.702,00 € | +780,16 € |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 7.648,00 € | +612,28 € |
| Bitcoin | 4.651,07 € | +236,10 € |
| Ethereum | 3.184,53 € | +159,23 € |
| Gold | 4.575,79 € | -91,52 € |
| Euros | 5.510,23 € | 0,00% € |
| Portfolio total | 90.989,80 € | +5.149,52 € |
What this means
- In this scenario your portfolio would hypothetically rise by +5.149,52 € overall.
- Most of the gain comes from equities and ETFs (largest contributors shown above); crypto adds a smaller positive contribution; gold would decline slightly; cash stays the same.
If you want, I can rerun with different shock sizes (for equities, crypto or gold) or apply the shock only to specific asset classes.
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See this for your own portfolio
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