How does a recession affect my portfolio?

A recession typically changes market prices, volatility and correlations. Below I show a simple hypothetical scenario applied to your current holdings and then list the main channels through which recessions affect those holdings.

Scenario (one example shock applied to today’s holdings; hypothetical)

• Assumptions: Equities: -30% applied to all Stock and ETF equity exposures; Crypto: -50%; Precious metal (Gold): +5%; Cash unchanged; shocks applied to today’s holdings; no buying or selling; exchange rates unchanged; no dividends.
• Result (hypothetical): your portfolio would fall to a new total value in this scenario; the changes assume the shock multiplies each holding’s current market value by (1 + shock). The scenario is illustrative, not a forecast.

How a recession works on your portfolio (mechanics)

• Equities (Stock, ETF): tend to fall as company earnings and investor risk appetite drop. Your top equity exposures (for example Apple Inc., iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF, Microsoft Corp.) together make up 65,64% of the portfolio, so a broad equity decline would be the main driver of any large portfolio fall.
• Volatility and correlations: volatility usually rises and previously low-correlated holdings can move together. Your portfolio annualized volatility is 16,36%% and the largest volatility contributors are concentrated in a few holdings (Apple, Microsoft and Deutsche Lufthansa in the risk breakdown), so higher market volatility increases short-term swings.
• Credit and cyclical risk: Industrials and Consumer Cyclical holdings (Industrials at 11,74% and Consumer Cyclical at 3,17%) can suffer more when demand drops; that affects companies with high fixed costs or weak balance sheets.
• Safe-haven and cash effects: Cash (Cash) remains stable in nominal terms; in many recessions Gold (Precious metal) can act differently — sometimes rising, sometimes falling — here your Gold position is 5,03% of the portfolio. Cash cushions immediate losses and preserves liquidity.
• Crypto: typically more sensitive to sentiment and can see larger declines; crypto is 8,61% of your portfolio.
• Diversification and concentration: your top holding is Apple Inc. at 18,41% of the portfolio and top 5 account for 65,64% — concentration in a few names increases the impact of large moves in those companies.
• Drawdown context: historically your largest drop from peak was -23.138,95 € (a distance from peak of -2,15%) and max drawdown was -25,49%, which shows how much the portfolio moved in past stress.

What typically happens day-to-day in a recession

• Larger negative price changes, more frequent negative returns, higher intra-day swings, and greater dispersion across sectors and market caps. Liquidity for small or niche instruments can worsen.

If you want, I can run a concrete simulated shock (numbers shown) on your exact holdings and give the resulting hypothetical portfolio value under that scenario.