What would make this portfolio more robust in bad markets?
A question that draws on several parts of a portfolio at once. The answer comes from more than one calculation, and says which figures it is putting together.
Worked through on a sample portfolio. The figures below are that portfolio’s, not yours.
I can only explain the portfolio’s current facts and what they mean, not give recommendations. Below is a neutral summary of features that affect robustness in down markets, drawn from your portfolio data.
Key portfolio facts
- Portfolio value: 90.989,80 €
- Cash: 5.510,23 € (6,06% of portfolio)
- Total invested (what you paid): 63.990,15 €
- Unrealized gain: +21.489,42 € (+33,58%)
- Holdings count: 11
- Top 1 weight: 18,41%; top 5 weight: 65,64%
- Annualized volatility: 16,36%; max drawdown: -25,49%; distance from ATH: -2,15%
How your current allocation affects downside resilience
- Liquid buffer: You hold 5.510,23 € (6,06%), which is a source of immediate liquidity.
- Concentration: Apple Inc. is your largest single holding at 18,41%; top five holdings combine to 65,64% of the portfolio — concentration increases exposure to large swings in those names.
- Risky vs defensive buckets: Stock is 49,09% and ETF is 31,21%; crypto exposure is 8,61%. Crypto and single equities tend to add volatility and larger downside movement.
- Diversification by sector and region: Technology is 39,98% of the portfolio and North America is 62,45% by country — sector/region concentration can amplify market downturns that hit those areas.
- Volatility contributors: The largest contributors to portfolio volatility are Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. (high volatility contributions of 20,9% and 15,98% respectively in the recent window). Crypto positions (Bitcoin and Ethereum) also each contribute ~10% of volatility.
- Defensive assets: Precious metal (Gold) is 5,03% and contributes less to downside correlation with equity exposure (correlation ~0,23), so its behaviour differs from stocks in downturns.
What the metrics imply about robustness
- Sharpe: 0,52 and Sortino: 0,72 indicate return vs risk profile; lower ratios imply more return required per unit of risk.
- Max drawdown: -25,49% (largest drop from peak -23.138,95 €) shows the portfolio has experienced sizable falls historically.
- Liquidity and rebalancing capacity are signalled by cash (5.510,23 €) and the share of ETFs vs single stocks (ETFs: 31,21%).
If you want, I can show a table comparing the largest volatility contributors and their weights so you can see which holdings move the portfolio most.
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Related questions
See this for your own portfolio
The assistant answers the same question about your own holdings, with your figures and today’s prices. Import from your broker, or open the demo portfolio and ask it there.
