Run a stress test based on a high-inflation scenario
A risk question asks how much of a portfolio depends on one thing going right — a single position, a sector, a country. Concentration is read as a share of the total, which is what the figures below show.
Worked through on a sample portfolio. The figures below are that portfolio’s, not yours.
I’ll run a high-inflation stress test on your portfolio using today’s holdings and report the result with assumptions.
Assumptions
- Shock: Equities (all stocks & equity ETFs) -20%; Crypto -30%; Gold +10%; Cash unchanged; Precious metal positions treated as Gold; no buying or selling; exchange rates unchanged; holdings valued at today’s market values.
- Shock applied to today's holdings (the snapshot you have now).
- Leveraged or inverse products: none in portfolio, so no inversion applied.
- Simulation is hypothetical — results "would fall to" or "would rise to".
Summary table — portfolio impact (all figures hypothetical)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio value today (market) | 90.983,96 € |
| Value after scenario | 78.303,16 € |
| Change in portfolio value (€) | -12.680,80 € |
| Change in portfolio value (%) | -13,93% |
| Assumed cash after shock | 5.510,23 € |
| Assumed unrealized gain/loss after shock | +8.802,78 € |
What I did (short)
- Applied the shocks to each asset class and summed the new market values.
- Cash left at 5.510,23 €.
- Gold increased by +10% on its market value.
- Equities and ETFs reduced by -20%; Crypto reduced by -30%.
Notes and interpretation
- The simulated portfolio falls from 90.983,96 € to 78.303,16 € in this scenario (a -13,93% change).
- The estimated unrealized gain/loss in the scenario is +8.802,78 € (hypothetical, shown as the scenario result).
If you want different shocks (stronger inflation, larger crypto drop, or equities -30%), I can rerun with those assumptions.
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Related questions
See this for your own portfolio
The assistant answers the same question about your own holdings, with your figures and today’s prices. Import from your broker, or open the demo portfolio and ask it there.