Run a stress test based on a USD decline
A risk question asks how much of a portfolio depends on one thing going right — a single position, a sector, a country. Concentration is read as a share of the total, which is what the figures below show.
Worked through on a sample portfolio. The figures below are that portfolio’s, not yours.
Here’s a USD-decline stress test applied to your portfolio (today’s holdings and values).
Assumptions
- Shock: USD exposure falls -15% versus EUR (a USD→EUR depreciation); all other currencies unchanged.
- Applied to: current holdings at their market value today.
- No buying or selling during the scenario; exchange rates otherwise fixed; no dividends or cash flows.
- Cash (EUR) and assets priced in EUR remain unchanged; crypto and gold assumed priced in EUR and unchanged.
- The shock only affects assets denominated in USD (direct USD holdings / USD-price instruments).
Result (summary)
- Portfolio value now: 90.983,96 €.
- In this scenario your portfolio would fall by -3.22% to a stressed value of 88.044,50 €.
- Change in absolute terms: -2.939,46 €.
How I computed it (brief)
- I identified the USD share of the portfolio (22,77% of value = 20.721,48 €).
- A -15% USD move reduces the EUR value of USD exposures by -15%; non-USD holdings unchanged.
- The total portfolio change equals -15% × USD exposure share of the portfolio.
Breakdown (USD exposure impact)
| Item | Value (€) | Change (€) |
|---|---|---|
| USD exposures (current) | 20.721,48 € | -3.108,22 € |
| Non-USD exposures (current) | 70.262,48 € | -0,00 € |
| Total portfolio (current) | 90.983,96 € | -3.108,22 € |
Notes
- The scenario treats the listed USD allocation as the total USD exposure; instruments with embedded USD sensitivity are included in that figure.
- This is hypothetical ("in this scenario") and not a forecast.
Would you like the same test with a different USD shock size or to see which holdings are in USD?
This page in other languages
Related questions
See this for your own portfolio
The assistant answers the same question about your own holdings, with your figures and today’s prices. Import from your broker, or open the demo portfolio and ask it there.