Run a stress test based on a recession scenario
A risk question asks how much of a portfolio depends on one thing going right — a single position, a sector, a country. Concentration is read as a share of the total, which is what the figures below show.
Worked through on a sample portfolio. The figures below are that portfolio’s, not yours.
Here is a recession stress test run on your current holdings (today’s values used; no buying/selling; exchange rates fixed; dividends ignored).
Assumptions:
- Equities (Stock and ETF): -30% applied to every holding with an equity identifier (applies to Stock and ETF rows).
- Crypto: -50% applied to Crypto.
- Precious metal: -10% applied to Precious metal.
- Cash: unchanged.
- Scenario applied to today’s holdings; no trades, fees or currency moves.
Results by asset class (values in EUR):
| Asset | Value (EUR) | Change (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Stock | 44.666,25 € | -13.399,88 € |
| ETF | 28.397,93 € | -8.519,38 € |
| Crypto | 7.833,76 € | -3.916,88 € |
| Precious metal | 4.575,79 € | -457,58 € |
| Cash | 5.510,23 € | +0,00 € |
Portfolio totals after scenario:
- Starting portfolio value: 90.983,96 €
- Total change in this scenario: -€26.293,72
- Value in this scenario: 64.690,24 €
What this means:
- The largest absolute drops come from stocks and ETFs because they are the biggest parts of your portfolio.
- Cash is unchanged and cushions part of the loss.
- Crypto contributes a proportionally large loss due to the -50% shock.
Would you like the same scenario broken down per holding or run a different set of shocks?
This page in other languages
Related questions
See this for your own portfolio
The assistant answers the same question about your own holdings, with your figures and today’s prices. Import from your broker, or open the demo portfolio and ask it there.