What happens to my portfolio if the dollar weakens sharply?
A currency question asks how much of a portfolio moves with an exchange rate rather than with the assets themselves. A fund priced in one currency can hold assets in several, so the exposure is rarely the currency on the ticket.
Worked through on a sample portfolio. The figures below are that portfolio’s, not yours.
I ran a simple scenario applying a sharp dollar weakening to your current holdings and show the effect and assumptions.
Assumptions
- Shock: USD exposures fall by -15% in EUR terms (USD-denominated holdings lose -15% vs EUR).
- Applied to: today's holdings at their current values.
- Fixed: no buying/selling, other currencies unchanged, exchange rates for non-USD unchanged, prices in local currency unchanged.
- Crypto, precious metals and cash treated as non‑USD unless held in USD (only USD allocation is shocked).
- Short/leveraged products: none in your portfolio, so no inversion applied.
Result (summary)
- Starting portfolio value: 90.989,80 €
- Shock on USD allocation (current USD share 22,77%) would reduce portfolio value by approximately -€1.908,22.
- Portfolio value in this scenario would fall to about 89.081,58 € (hypothetical).
Breakdown of the effect by currency
| Asset | Currency exposure | Value change (€) |
|---|---|---|
| USD allocation (overall) | USD | -1.908,22 |
What this means
- The estimated change shown is hypothetical "in this scenario" and only reflects the currency move applied to your USD exposures.
- The scenario treats USD exposures as losing value when converted to EUR; holdings priced in EUR or in other currencies are not affected here.
Would you like me to rerun this with a different USD shock (for example -10% or -25%) or show which holdings are most USD-exposed?
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See this for your own portfolio
The assistant answers the same question about your own holdings, with your figures and today’s prices. Import from your broker, or open the demo portfolio and ask it there.